国际麻醉学与复苏杂志   2021, Issue (11): 11-11
    
肾癌合并静脉癌栓患者术后并发症预测模型构建
孙丙亮, 许珍真, 胡晓, 李雪1()
1.北京大学第一医院
Establishment of a predictive model for postoperative complications in renal cell carcinoma patients with venous thrombus
 全文:
摘要:

目的 建立肾癌合并静脉癌栓患者住院期间术后并发症的预测模型。 方法 回顾性分析2012年1月至2020年6月在北京大学第一医院泌尿外科行肾癌根治术及静脉癌栓取出术的183例患者的围手术期资料。采用单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析法筛选术后并发症的危险因素,使用R软件建立列线图模型,采用一致性指数(C⁃index)评价模型的区分度;采用加强Bootstrap法进行内部验证,计算经乐观值调整后的C⁃index,并绘制校准曲线和计算调整后Brier⁃score评估模型的校准度。 结果 本研究中患者术后总并发症发生率为36.6%(67/183)。多因素回归分析显示:术前Mayo分级高[比值比(odds ratio, OR)=2.27,95%CI 1.09~4.70,P=0.028]、肝酶升高(OR=8.62,95%CI 1.88~39.57,P=0.006)、进行急性等容自体血液稀释(OR=2.50,95%CI 1.05~5.94,P=0.039)、术中使用CPB(OR=10.20,95%CI 2.62~39.65,P=0.001)和乳酸峰值高(OR=1.62,95%CI 1.05~2.49,P=0.030)是术后并发症发生的独立危险因素,男性(OR=0.30,95%CI 0.12~0.75,P=0.010)、术前白蛋白高(OR=0.90,95%CI 0.82~0.98,P=0.020)是术后并发症发生的保护因素。以上述因素构建的术后并发症预测模型,其区分度较高(粗C⁃index=0.837,95%CI 0.776~0.899);内部验证显示,该模型经乐观值调整后的C⁃index为0.779,调整后Brier⁃score为0.189,结合校正曲线,表明该模型的区分度及校准度均较好。 结论 基于男性、术前白蛋白、Mayo分级、肝酶升高、使用急性等容血液稀释、术中CPB及乳酸峰值建立的术后并发症预测模型具有较好的区分度及校准度,便于临床使用。

关键词: 肾癌; 静脉癌栓; 术后并发症; 危险因素; 预测模型
Abstract:

Objective To establish a predictive model for postoperative complications in renal cell carcinoma patients with venous thrombus during hospitalization. Methods A total of 183 patients who underwent nephrectomy with venous thrombectomy between January 2012 and June 2020 in Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital were enrolled and their perioperative data were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen out risk factors of postoperative complications. A nomogram for predicting postoperative complications was developed by R Software. Discrimination of the predictive model was determined by calculating the concordance index (C⁃ index). The developed model was internally validated using enhanced Bootstrap method. Optimism⁃corrected performance was then calculated. Calibration of the model was evaluated by Brier score and calibration curve. Results The overall rate of postoperative complication during hospitalization was 36.6% (67/183) in this study. Multivariate Logistic analysis showed that higher Mayo level [odds ratio (OR)=2.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09−4.70, P=0.028], preoperative elevated transaminase (OR=8.62, 95%CI 1.88−39.57, P=0.006), preoperative acute normovolemic hemodilution (OR=2.50, 95%CI 1.05−5.94, P=0.039), use of cardiopulmonary bypass (OR=10.20, 95%CI 2.62−39.65, P=0.001) and higher maximum lactic acid value (OR=1.62, 95%CI 1.05−2.49, P=0.030) were the independent risk factors for postoperative complications, while male (OR=0.30, 95%CI 0.12−0.75, P=0.010) and a higher level of preoperative albuminemia (OR=0.90, 95%CI 0.82−0.98, P=0.020) were the protecting factors. Based on these independent factors, the nomogram was established with well discrimination of postoperative complications (C⁃index=0.837, 95%CI 0.776−0.899). According to internal validation, the optimism⁃corrected C⁃index was 0.779 after optimism correction, with a corrected Brier score of 0.189. Conclusions The predictive model for postoperative complication is established based on male, preoperative albuminemia level, Mayo level, elevated transaminase, acute normovolemic hemodilution,use of cardiopulmonary bypass and maximum lactic acid value, with good discrimination and calibration ability, which is useful in clinical practice.

Key words: Renal carcinoma; Venous thrombus; Postoperative complications; Risk factor; Prediction model