国际麻醉学与复苏杂志   2024, Issue (1): 0-0
    
个体化预测剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压风险列线图模型的建立及验证
刘佳1()
1.安徽省马鞍山市十七冶医院
Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for individualized prediction of hypotension risk duration intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section
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摘要:

目的 探讨剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的危险因素,并建立剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的列线图模型。 方法 选取马鞍山十七冶医院2019年4月至2022年7月行剖宫产椎管内麻醉的240例产妇作为模型组,选取2022年10月至2023年6月行剖宫产椎管内麻醉的44例产妇作为验证组。采用单因素及多因素logistic回归分析筛选剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的危险因素,应用R软件建立剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的列线图模型,并验证剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的列线图模型。 结果 模型组240例剖宫产椎管内麻醉产妇中有110例产妇发生低血压,低血压的发生率为45.83%。logistic回归分析结果显示,体重指数(BMI)≥28 kg/m2、先兆子痫、糖尿病、术前心率≥90 次/min及宫高>36 cm等是剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的危险因素(均P<0.05)。模型组的一致性指数(C‑index)为0.719[95%置信区间(CI)0.683~0.756,P<0.05],验证组的C‑index为0.731(95%CI 0.699~0.764,P<0.05);模型组与验证组的校正曲线皆显示预测值与实际值的拟合度较好;模型的受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线下面积0.708(95%CI 0.675~0.741,P<0.05),敏感度72.93%,特异度80.90%,阴性预测值80.00%,阳性预测值71.43%;验证组的ROC曲线下面积0.720(95%CI 0.687~0.753,P<0.05),敏感度75.41%,特异度82.36%,阴性预测值83.14%,阳性预测值73.82%;模型组的决策曲线显示阈值概率为24%~84%时,列线图预测剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的净获益值较高,验证组的决策曲线显示阈值概率为23%~100%时,列线图预测剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的净获益值较高。 结论 BMI≥28 kg/m2、先兆子痫、糖尿病、术前心率≥90 次/min及宫高>36 cm等是剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的危险因素,剖宫产椎管内麻醉发生低血压的列线图模型的准确率和临床应用价值一般。

关键词: 剖宫产; 椎管内麻醉; 低血压; 危险因素; 列线图
Abstract:

Objective To investigate the risk factors of hypotension duration intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section, and establish a nomogram model of hypotension for cesarean section under intraspinal anesthesia. Methods A total of 240 parturients who were admitted to Maanshan 17th Metallurgical Hospital for cesarean section under intraspinal anesthesia from April 2019 to July 2022 were selected as a model group. Meanwhile, 44 women who underwent intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section from October 2022 to June 2023 were selected as a verification group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen the risk factors of hypotension caused by cesarean section under intraspinal anesthesia. R software was used to establish a nomogram model of hypotension due to intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section, and the nomogram model was verified. Results Among 240 parturients who underwent intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section, there were 110 cases of hypotension, with an incidence of 45.83% (110/240). Logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index (BMI)≥28 kg/m2, preeclampsia, diabetes, preoperative heart rate≥90 times/min and uterine height>36 cm were the risk factors for hypotension due to intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section (all P<0.05). The consistency index (C‑index) was 0.719 [(95% confidence interval (CI) 0.683, 0.756), P<0.05] for the model group, and 0.731 [95%CI (0.699, 0.764), P<0.05] for the verification group. The calibration curves of both the model group and the verification group showed a good fit between the predicted value and the actual value. The area under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of the model was 0.708 [95%CI (0.675, 0.741), P<0.05], with a sensitivity of 72.93% and a specificity of 80.90%; the negative predictive value was 80.00%, and the positive predictive value was 71.43%. In contrast, the area under ROC curve of the verification group was 0.720 [95%CI (0.687, 0.753), P<0.05], with a sensitivity of 75.41%, and a specificity of 82.36%; the negative predictive value was 83.14%, and the positive predictive value was 73.82%. When the decision curve of the model group showed the threshold probability at 24%‒84%, the net benefit value of the column graph predicting hypotension due to intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section was higher. When the decision curve of the verification group showed the threshold probability at 23%‒100%, the net benefit value of the column graph predicting hypotension due to intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section was higher. Conclusions BMI≥28 kg/m2, preeclampsia, diabetes mellitus, preoperative heart rate≥90 times/min and uterine height>36 cm are the risk factors due to hypotension induced by intraspinal anesthesia for cesarean section. The accuracy and clinical application value of the nomogram model for intraspinal anesthesia induced hypotension during cesarean section are common.

Key words: Cesarean section; Intraspinal anesthesia; Hypotension; Risk factors; Nomogram